COQUITLAM MARKET RESEARCH

Have Coquitlam Home Prices Reached the Bottom?

A fact-based analysis of condos, townhouses and detached homes, and what could change the market next.

By Linden MacDonald | Coquitlam & Greater Vancouver REALTOR®
Data current to July 2026 | Published August 2026

BOTTOM LINE
Coquitlam appears to be in the lower portion of its current cycle, but the evidence does not yet confirm that the final price bottom is behind us. Nobody can call the exact bottom in real time. The most defensible near-term outlook is uneven stabilization, with room for modest additional weakness if demand fails to improve. That's why the better goal for buyers isn't timing the bottom. It's finding the right property at the right price at a time that works for them.

The question almost everyone is asking

Whether I'm speaking with a buyer, a seller or someone considering a move within Coquitlam, one question comes up repeatedly: have prices finally reached the bottom?

It's an understandable question, but it's also easy to answer too confidently. A market bottom isn't a single statistic or a date that can be identified in real time. It's usually confirmed only after prices have stopped declining, sales activity has improved, inventory has tightened and the change has persisted for several months.

The July 2026 evidence suggests Coquitlam is no longer in the rapid repricing phase seen during sharper corrections. However, prices were still declining, sales remained subdued and inventory was still giving many buyers meaningful choice. That means we may be approaching the bottom area of the cycle without being able to say that every property type, or every neighbourhood, has already reached it.

The current Coquitlam numbers

Source: Greater Vancouver REALTORS® July 2026 MLS® HPI and REALTOR® Report. Sales-to-active ratios calculated from reported sales and active listings. "DOM" means average days on market.

The composite benchmark for Coquitlam was $987,600 in July. It had fallen 6.2% over one year and 12.4% over three years, but it was still well above where it stood ten years earlier. This is an important perspective: Coquitlam has experienced a real correction from its more recent levels, but the longer-term data does not describe a collapse in housing values.

The benchmark is preferable to a simple average or median when analyzing direction because it tracks the estimated value of a typical constant-quality home. A monthly average can swing sharply if an unusual number of luxury or entry-level properties happen to sell.

What the sales-to-active ratio tells us

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® notes that sustained ratios below approximately 12% have historically been associated with downward price pressure, while ratios above 20% for several months tend to create upward pressure. The range in between is generally considered balanced.

Coquitlam's overall ratio of 14.4% was balanced, but closer to the softer boundary. The breakdown matters: detached homes were slightly below the 12% threshold, townhouses were close to 20%, and apartments were in the middle of the balanced range.

This is why it would be misleading to issue one sweeping verdict for "the Coquitlam market." A well-renovated townhouse in a sought-after complex may face a very different competitive environment from an older condo with high strata fees or a detached home competing with many similar listings.

Detached homes: the clearest evidence of continued pressure

The detached benchmark was $1,627,600, down 5.2% year over year, 9.0% over three years and 1.3% in July alone. There were 54 sales against 480 active listings, producing an 11.3% sales-to-active ratio.

That ratio is the weakest of the three major property types and sits just below the level historically associated with downward pressure. Detached homes are also the most sensitive to mortgage qualification because the absolute purchase price, and therefore the required income and carrying cost, is highest.

At the same time, detached values were still well above their level from ten years earlier and above their July 2021 level. The data supports a soft market with negotiating opportunity, not a conclusion that detached prices are in free fall.

My interpretation: detached homes have not produced enough evidence to confirm a bottom. If the ratio remains below 12%, listings rebuild or employment weakens, another period of modest price erosion is plausible. Conversely, a relatively small increase in qualified demand could stabilize this segment because detached housing supply is structurally difficult to replace.

Townhouses: falling prices, but stronger present demand

Townhouses present the most interesting contradiction. Their $990,900 benchmark was down 8.6% year over year, the largest annual decline of the three segments, and fell 2.5% in July. Yet 36 sales against 183 active listings created a 19.7% ratio, almost at the threshold normally associated with upward pressure.

This doesn't mean townhouse prices must immediately rise. Benchmark prices reflect completed transactions and therefore lag changes in buyer activity. It does suggest, however, that townhouses may be closer to stabilizing than their annual decline implies.

Townhouses occupy an important affordability position. They appeal to households that need more space than a condo provides but can't, or don't wish to, carry the price of a detached home. That "middle" position can produce resilient demand for well-maintained properties with functional layouts, reasonable strata fees and usable outdoor space.

My interpretation: among the three segments, townhouses currently have the strongest argument for being near a bottom. That conclusion still requires confirmation through several months of firm ratios, stable benchmark prices and consistent sales, not one monthly reading.

Condos: the most inventory and the longest marketing time

The apartment benchmark was $651,400, down 7.2% over one year, 12.4% over three years and 0.4% in July. There were 90 sales against 587 active listings, creating a balanced 15.3% ratio. Apartments also had the longest average marketing time at 39 days.

The condo segment contains nearly half of Coquitlam's active resale inventory. It's also where resale sellers can face the most direct competition from newer buildings, assignments, developer incentives and completed but unsold units elsewhere in Metro Vancouver.

Not all condos are equally exposed. Newer buildings near SkyTrain, larger two-bedroom layouts, attractive views and well-run strata corporations can outperform. Older buildings with looming capital work, high monthly fees, weak contingency reserves or known insurance issues may require a greater price adjustment.

My interpretation: condo prices may be moving toward stabilization, but the amount of standing inventory and subdued apartment sales make it premature to declare a confirmed bottom. Buyers still have the ability to compare competing listings carefully, and sellers must price against current, not aspirational, comparable sales.

Evidence that Coquitlam may be approaching the bottom

• The correction is already meaningful. Coquitlam's composite benchmark was 12.4% below July 2023, and all three major property types were below their year-earlier levels.
• The overall sales-to-active ratio remains in balanced territory rather than deeply in buyer-market conditions.
• Townhouse demand is relatively tight, suggesting buyers respond when the product and price are right.
• Regional sellers have begun bringing fewer new listings to market. Metro Vancouver new listings were down 11.5% year over year in July and matched the ten-year seasonal average.
• The Bank of Canada's policy rate is well below its 2024 peak, easing variable-rate borrowing costs and improving sentiment, even though affordability remains challenging.
• Long-term supply constraints remain. CMHC expects British Columbia housing starts to weaken, particularly in the condominium market, which could limit ownership supply several years from now.

Evidence that further downward pressure is still possible

• Coquitlam benchmarks were still declining month over month in July: detached −1.3%, townhouse −2.5%, apartment −0.4% and composite −1.2%.
• Metro Vancouver sales were 18.6% below the ten-year July average, while active listings were 26.8% above the ten-year seasonal average.
• Detached Coquitlam's 11.3% sales-to-active ratio was already in the zone associated with downward pressure if it persists.
• BCREA expects the provincial average price to decline 1.4% in 2026 and specifically identifies elevated listings, new-home inventory and weakness in expensive Lower Mainland markets as headwinds.
• Vancouver's unemployment rate was 6.0% in July, down from 6.6% in June. It's still historically elevated, and a renewed deterioration in the labour market could reduce purchasing power and increase financially motivated listings.
• Reduced temporary-resident arrivals and stabilized permanent-resident targets may moderate one source of near-term housing demand compared with the unusually rapid population growth of earlier years.
• Mortgage renewals can still increase payments for households moving from older, lower rates, even though the policy rate has declined.

So, have we reached the bottom?

THE MOST DEFENSIBLE ANSWER
Possibly for some individual properties, and perhaps soon for townhouses, but not yet conclusively for Coquitlam as a whole.

The data does not support a dramatic-crash narrative. It also doesn't support confidently telling buyers that prices can only rise from here. Prices were still drifting lower, demand remained below normal and elevated regional inventory continued to give buyers leverage.

My base case for the next six to twelve months is a market that remains uneven and highly property-specific. If borrowing costs and employment are broadly stable, Coquitlam could spend time moving sideways, with modest additional declines in softer categories and firm performance for scarce, well-priced properties. A clear recovery would require sales ratios to strengthen and remain stronger, inventory to tighten and benchmark prices to flatten for several consecutive months.

Three realistic market paths

What could change the outlook quickly?

1. Mortgage rates: not only the Bank of Canada rate
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026. Variable mortgage rates tend to respond directly to policy-rate decisions. Fixed mortgage rates, however, are influenced more by Government of Canada bond yields and lender pricing. This means fixed rates can rise or fall even when the Bank of Canada does nothing.

2. Inflation and bond markets
If inflation or global borrowing costs rise, fixed mortgage rates could move higher and reduce purchasing power. If inflation remains contained and bond yields fall, affordability could improve without a formal policy-rate cut.

3. Employment and household confidence
Housing demand depends not only on qualification but on confidence. Stable employment can bring postponed buyers back. A recession, layoffs or declining household confidence can reduce demand and create additional listings.

4. The direction of inventory
A market can turn faster than expected if sellers withdraw and new listings decline. Conversely, a new wave of listings, particularly financially motivated sales or investor-owned condos, could renew downward pressure. Inventory should be watched alongside sales, never by itself.

5. New construction, completions and incentives
CMHC has highlighted weak condominium presales and elevated unsold inventory in Vancouver. Completed new homes can compete directly with resale listings through incentives or financing offers. Over a longer horizon, however, weak presales and falling housing starts can reduce future supply and eventually support resale prices.

6. Population and immigration policy
The federal 2026–2028 plan stabilizes permanent-resident admissions at 380,000 annually and reduces targets for new temporary-resident arrivals. Slower population growth can cool demand in the near term, but Coquitlam remains an established, transit-connected community within a land-constrained region.

7. Coquitlam-specific development and land-use changes
The City has supported substantial housing delivery and permits up to four units on most single-family lots under provincial small-scale multi-unit housing requirements. Transit-oriented planning can add future supply while also increasing the redevelopment value of certain sites. The effect will vary significantly by neighbourhood and property type.

What this means for buyers

No one can call the exact bottom of a market in real time. It's only ever confirmed months later, once prices have flattened and demand has held up consistently. That's why trying to time the absolute low is usually less useful than a simpler standard: buy the right home, at a price you're comfortable defending, when it fits your life and your finances. The right property at the right price at the right time will always beat waiting for a bottom that can only be identified after it's already passed.

Buyers currently have more selection and negotiating room than they did in a strong seller's market, particularly among detached homes and condos with competing inventory.

That doesn't mean every listing should receive an aggressive low offer. Well-priced townhouses, renovated homes and scarce layouts can still attract strong interest. The better strategy is to examine recent comparable sales, competing active listings, strata or property condition, days on market and the seller's pricing history.

What this means for sellers

A softer market doesn't mean homes don't sell. It means buyers compare value more carefully and resist prices based on last year's expectations. Accurate positioning at launch matters because repeated reductions can cause a listing to lose momentum.

Condition, presentation, marketing and negotiation become more, not less, important when buyers have alternatives. Sellers should also analyze the market for their next purchase. A move-up seller may accept somewhat less for the existing property but gain more negotiating power on the more expensive home being purchased.

What would confirm a real bottom?

I'd look for several of the following signals occurring together, not one isolated good month:

• Benchmark prices flattening or rising for at least three consecutive months after seasonal adjustment and broader context are considered.
• Sales-to-active ratios holding above the lower balanced-market boundary across more than one property type.
• Sales moving closer to long-term seasonal norms instead of producing one short-lived monthly bounce.
• Active inventory declining relative to demand, especially in the condo segment.
• Average days on market shortening and fewer price reductions being required.
• Improved sale-to-original-list-price ratios and fewer expired or terminated listings.

Until several of these line up at once, the honest answer to "has the market bottomed" is "we don't know yet, and no one else does either." That's a reason to focus on the property in front of you rather than on timing a signal that can only be confirmed in hindsight.

Final perspective

Coquitlam has already experienced a significant adjustment. By July 2026, the composite benchmark was 6.2% lower than a year earlier and 12.4% lower than three years earlier. Yet conditions were not uniform: detached homes showed the weakest demand ratio, townhouses showed the tightest balance, and condos carried the greatest amount of standing inventory.

For that reason, I don't believe the responsible answer is either "the bottom is definitely in" or "prices are about to fall dramatically." The evidence points instead to a market searching for a floor. There may still be room for modest downward pressure, particularly if rates, employment or inventory move against sellers. There's also a realistic possibility that some well-positioned categories, especially townhouses, stabilize before the broader market does.

The most useful question isn't simply whether "Coquitlam" has bottomed. It's whether the particular property type, neighbourhood, building, condition and price bracket relevant to your decision is showing stabilization. That's where current comparable sales and property-level analysis become essential, and it's a conversation worth having before you decide to wait for a signal that may not arrive on any predictable schedule.

Frequently asked questions

Is Coquitlam currently a buyer's market?
Overall, July's 14.4% sales-to-active ratio placed Coquitlam in balanced territory, but toward the softer end. Detached homes were slightly within the zone associated with downward pressure, while townhouses were much tighter. Buyers generally have meaningful choice, but not every segment is a clear buyer's market.

Which property type appears closest to stabilizing?
Townhouses had the strongest July sales-to-active ratio at 19.7%, despite recording the largest year-over-year benchmark decline. That divergence suggests demand may be improving before prices have fully reflected it, although several more months are needed for confirmation.

Could Coquitlam prices still decline?
Yes. Prices were still falling monthly, regional sales remained below normal and inventory remained above the ten-year average. Further modest declines are plausible. The current evidence does not, however, establish the conditions for an inevitable severe correction.

Should buyers wait for the confirmed bottom?
A bottom can only be confirmed after the market has begun improving, which means waiting for certainty guarantees missing the best of the buying window. Buyers with stable financing, a long ownership horizon and the ability to find the right property may be better served by today's selection and negotiating conditions than by waiting for a signal that arrives, if it arrives, in hindsight. Buyers who are stretching qualification or may need to move again soon should be more cautious regardless of where the market sits.

Why can prices decline in a "balanced" market?
Market-balance ratios describe present sales relative to inventory, while benchmark prices are based on completed transactions and can lag changes in activity. A ratio near the bottom of the balanced range can also coexist with gradual price declines, particularly after a period of excess inventory.

Want a read on your specific property?

City-wide benchmarks are a starting point, not an answer. Whether your street, your building or your price bracket is closer to a floor than the composite numbers suggest is a different question, and it's the one that actually matters when you're deciding whether to list, buy or wait.

If you're weighing a move in Coquitlam or anywhere in the Tri-Cities, I'll put together a comparable-based read on your specific property or the segment you're watching, current listings, recent solds, and where your situation fits into the scenarios above. No pressure, just the numbers and what they mean for your decision.

Reach out any time to talk through your options: Linden MacDonald, Coquitlam & Greater Vancouver REALTOR®.

Sources and methodology

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® — July 2026 Market Report and Statistics Package
https://www.gvrealtors.ca/news/metro-vancouver-home-sales-lose-brief-momentum-public

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® — Monthly Market Reports and Media Room
https://www.gvrealtors.ca/media-room.html

Bank of Canada — Policy interest rate and 2026 announcement schedule
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/

BCREA — 2026 Second Quarter Housing Forecast
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/housing-forecast/

BCREA — Mortgage Rate Forecast
https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/mortgage-rate-forecast/

CMHC — Housing Market Outlook
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook

Statistics Canada — Labour Force Survey, July 2026
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260807/dq260807a-eng.htm

Government of Canada — 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/corporate-initiatives/levels.html

City of Coquitlam — Provincial Housing Changes (Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing)
https://www.coquitlam.ca/1334/Provincial-Housing-Changes

Methodology note: Benchmark prices and percentage changes are taken from the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® MLS® Home Price Index. Sales, active listings and average days on market are from its July 2026 REALTOR® Report. Sales-to-active ratios were calculated by dividing sales by active listings. Forecast statements are presented as scenarios, not guarantees. Real estate markets can change quickly, and individual properties may perform differently from city-wide benchmarks.